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Cite as
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Titolo completo
ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
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Editore
FrancoAngeli
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ISSN
2280-7659 (Rivista Stampata)
2280-7667 (Rivista Online)
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Numero del fascicolo
2
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Designazione del fascicolo
2
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Data del fascicolo
2022
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Titolo completo
The impact of oil price shocks on economic growth in Algeria
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Di (autore)
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Prima Pagina
63
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Ultima Pagina
82
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Lingua del testo
Inglese
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Data di publicazione
2023/05
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Copyright
2022 FrancoAngeli srl
Introduzione o prefazione
In this study, we investigate the consequences of oil price shocks on Algerian economic growth, both on an aggregated and a disaggregated level. We adopt the method used in (Kilian, 2009) in which global oil supply shocks, global demand shocks, and anticipated demand shocks are defined. We use a two structural VAR models. The first model identifies shocks to oil prices using monthly data on oil production, oil real prices, and indicators of global eco- nomic activity. The second model describes the dynamics of a set of macroeconomic varia- bles: real overall GDP, hydrocarbon GDP, agricultural GDP, construction GDP, and interna- tional trade variables. To grasp the impact of oil shocks on sectoral growth, the model is aug- mented via three external shocks identified in the first stage. Our results are twofold. First, they show the significance of the oil price shocks' impact on the Algerian economy. Second, they indicate an asymmetry in this impact. Negative shocks to oil prices have depressive ef- fects on economic activity as a whole, including the non-hydrocarbon sector. We detect a delay-effect; global demand shocks affect economic sectors after 5-7 quarters, whereas oil price shocks affect the hydrocarbon sector after 1-2 quarters only.
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