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Full Title (English)
Academicus International Scientific Journal
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Publisher
Academicus International Scientific Journal
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ISSN
20793715 (Printed Journal)
23091088 (Online Journal)
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Journal Volume Number
10
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Journal Issue Date (YYYY/MM)
2014/07
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Full Title (English)
Artificial neural networks in forecasting tourists’ flow, an intelligent technique to help the economic development of tourism in Albania.
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By (author)
Affiliation
University “Pavaresia” Vlore, Albania, Doctoral Candidate
Affiliation
"University of Vlore ""Ismail Qemali"", Albania", Dr.
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Number of Pages
10
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First Page
202
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Last Page
211
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Language of text
English
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Publication Date
2014/07
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Copyright
2014 Academicus
Main description
Tourism plays an important role in many economies and contributes greatly to the Gross Domestic Product. In the past eight years, the number of tourist arrivals in Albania has increased rapidly, which resulted in increasing the number of tourist nights and revenue from tourism. Tourism also provides new sources of income for the country, without having that local citizen to pay more taxes. This can be achieved by income from parking, tourist taxes, leased apartments, sales information, etc. Early prediction on the tourist inflow mainly focuses on econometric models that have as a main feature the tourism demand being predicted by analysing factors that affect the tourists’ inflow. This approach results in being difficult, time-consuming and also expensive to determine econometric models. Traditional time series methods, such as exponential smoothing method, grey prediction method, linear regression method, ARIMA method etc., are more appropriate for the prediction of the tourist inflow. However, since they don’t apply a learning process on sample data, it is difficult for them to realize complicated and non-linear prediction on tourist inflow. The aim of this paper is to present the neural network usage in the tourists’ number forecasting and to determine the trends of the future tourist inflow, thus helping tourism management agencies in making scientific based financial decisions.
Reference list of
10.7336/academicus.2014.10.14
ISSN
20793715
Journal Title
Academicus International Scientific Journal
Journal Issue Number
6
Journal Issue Date
2012
First Page
41
Full Title
Tourism development, touristic local taxes and local human resources: A stable way to improve efficiency and effectiveness of local strategies of development
Author
Musaraj, Arta [person]
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