Full Title
FINANCIAL REPORTING
Publisher
FrancoAngeli
ISSN
2036-671X (Printed Journal)
2036-6779 (Online Journal)
Journal Issue Number
2
Journal Issue Designation
2
Journal Issue Date (YYYY/MM)
2020/11
Full Title
Can a quantitative approach be mitigated? Proposals for the application of the "early warnings" required by the new Italian Insolvency Code
By (author)
First Page
33
Last Page
61
Language of text
English
Publication Date
2020/11
Copyright
2020 FrancoAngeli srl
Introduction or preface
In compliance with European regulations, the new Italian "Insolvency Code" introduced new tools to prevent future financial crises in businesses ("early warn-ings"). Their aim is to highlight future insolvency issues, to enable timely action in order to avert the potential crisis for as long as possible.V This mechanism will come into force on 15 August 2020. Based on a previous investigation that identified the most sensitive financial ratios for evaluating a go-ing concern, this study proposes and tests a possible approach which combines generic quantitative indicators with a case-by-case solution. A discriminant analysis was made on a pairwise sample of Italian non-listed small and medium-sized companies (SMEs). The proposed model overcomes the problem that arose from a combined interpretation of the indicators, and also it acts as a tool that can deter-mine the level of risk within each situation. This approach aims to limit the rigidity produced by common quantitative thresholds, thereby reducing false positives and negatives, ensuring an automatic reporting process that can preserve the efficiency of the early warning mechanism. Furthermore, our proposal is better suited to SMEs, since it is based on financial statements rather than forecasts.
Unstructured Citation
Altman E.I. (1968), Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, The Journal of Finance, 23(4), pp. 589-609.
Unstructured Citation
Altman E.I., Danovi A., Falini A. (2013), Z-Score Models’ application to Italian companies subject to extraordinary administration, Journal of Applied Finance (Formerly Financial Practice and Education), 23(1).
Unstructured Citation
Altman E.I., Iwanicz-Drozdowska M., Laitinen E.K., Suvas A. (2014), Distressed Firm and Bankruptcy Prediction in an International Context: A review and empirical analysis of Altman's Z-score model, Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 28(2), pp. 131-171.
Unstructured Citation
Altman E.I., Sabato G. (2007), Modelling credit risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. market, Abacus, 43(3), pp. 332-357,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6281.2007.00234.x
Unstructured Citation
Bava F., Gromis di Trana M. (2019.a), ISA 570: Italian Auditors’ and Academics’ Perceptions of the Going Concern Opinion,
Australian Accounting Review, 29(1), pp. 112-123.
https://doi.org/10.1111/auar.12238
Unstructured Citation
Bava F., Gromis di Trana M. (2019.b), Big4 Versus Non-Big4 Opinion about the Going Concern Assessment: A Survey, International
Journal of Business and Management, 14(2), pp. 87-98.
https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v14n2p87
Unstructured Citation
Bava F., Devalle A. (2019), Indici di allerta della crisi differenziati in base alle dimensioni aziendali (Eutekne.info).
Unstructured Citation
Beaver W.H., McNichols M.F., Rhie J.W. (2005), Have financial statements become less informative? Evidence from the ability of financial ratios to predict bankruptcy, Review of Accounting Studies, 10(1), pp. 93-122.
Unstructured Citation
Bini M. (2019), Procedura di allerta: indicatori della crisi e obbligo di segnalazione da parte degli organi di controllo, Le Società, 4.
Unstructured Citation
Brodi E. (2018), Tempestiva emersione e gestione della crisi d’impresa. Riflessioni sul disegno di un efficiente «sistema di allerta e composizione», Quaderni di Economia e Finanza, 440.
Unstructured Citation
Celli M. (2015), Can Z-Score Model Predict Listed Companies’ Failures in Italy? An Empirical Test, International Journal of Business and Management, 10(3), pp. 57-66.
Unstructured Citation
Cerved (2018), Riforma legge fallimentare: quali soglie per il regime di allerta?, -- https://know.cerved.com/imprese-mercati/legge-fallimentare-allerta-per-crisi.
Unstructured Citation
De Matteis S. (2017), L’emersione anticipata della crisi d’impresa, Quaderni di Giurisprudenza Commerciale, p. 321.
Unstructured Citation
Gromis di Trana M., Alfiero S. (2019), The Role of the ISA 570 “Adverse Key Financial Ratios” in Going Concern Assessment in Italy, Corporate Ownership and Control, 16(4), pp. 8-18.
Unstructured Citation
Guatri L. (1985), Il fronteggiamento delle situazioni di crisi, Finanza, marketing e produzione, 3, p. 11.
Unstructured Citation
Keasey K., Watson R. (1987), Non-financial symptoms and the prediction of small company failure, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 14(3), pp. 335-354.
Unstructured Citation
Kida C.Y. (1998), Financial ratios as predictors of bankruptcy in Japan: An empirical research, Journal of Finance, 123, pp. 589-609.
Unstructured Citation
Koch A. (2002), Financial Distress and the Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts, working paper, University of Virginia -- available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=415580, accessed 28 March 2018.
Unstructured Citation
Lenard M.J., Alam P. (2009), An historical perspective on fraud detection: From bankruptcy models to most effective indicators of fraud in recent incidents, Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting, 1(1), pp. 1-27.
Unstructured Citation
Lugovskaja L. (2009), Predicting default of Russian SMEs on the basis of financial and non-financial variables, Journal of Financial Services Marketing, 14(4), pp. 301-313.
Unstructured Citation
Montanari M. (2019), La procedura di allerta e gli indicatori di crisi nel nuovo codice della crisi d’impresa e dell’insolvenza (d. lgs. 12 gennaio 2019, n. 14). Un accrescimento degli adempimenti burocratici e del rischio reputazione per le piccole e medie imprese?, Il Diritto degli Affari, pp. 1-10.
Unstructured Citation
Morris R. (2018), Early Warning Indicators of Corporate Failure: A Critical Review of Previous Research and Further Empirical
Evidence. (London: Routledge).
https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429458507
Unstructured Citation
Panzani L. (2017), Conservazione dell’impresa, interesse pubblico e tutela dei creditori: considerazioni a margine della proposta di direttiva in tema di armonizzazione delle procedure di ristrutturazione, Crisi d’impresa e fallimento.
Unstructured Citation
Persons O.S. (1995), Using financial statement data to identify factors associated with fraudulent financial reporting, Journal of Applied Business Research, 11(3), pp. 38-46.
Unstructured Citation
Pisoni P., Devalle A. (2013), Analisi finanziaria. (Milano: Giuffrè).
Unstructured Citation
Quagli A. (2016), Il concetto di crisi d’impresa come incontro tra la prospettiva aziendale e quella giuridica, Crisi d’impresa e fallimento.
Unstructured Citation
Ranalli R. (2017), Gli indicatori di allerta nel testo del disegno di legge delega della riforma fallimentare approvato dalla Camera; esame critico; rischi per il sistema delle imprese, Crisi d’impresa e fallimento.
Unstructured Citation
Riva P., Comoli M. (2019), The impact of the new Italian early warning system provided by the IC-Code on family SMES governance, Corporate Ownership & Control, 16(3), pp. 64-72.
Unstructured Citation
Riva P., Danovi A., Comoli M., Garelli A. (2018), Corporate Governance in Downturn Times: Detection and Alert – The New Italian
Insolvency and Crisis Code in Crisis Management-Theory and Practice, (IntechOpen).
https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74964
Unstructured Citation
Sirirattanaphonkun S., Pattarathammas M. (2012), Default prediction for small-medium enterprises in emerging market: Evidence from Thailand, Seoul Journal of Business, 18(2), pp. 25-54.
Unstructured Citation
World Bank (2018), Doing Business.
Unstructured Citation
Wiklund J., Baker T., Shepherd D. (2008), The Age-Effect of Financial Indicators as Buffers Against the Liability of Newness, Journal of Business Venturing, 25(4), pp. 423-437.
Unstructured Citation
Zuzàk R. (2017), Early warning systems for strategic and crisis management. (Knowledge for Market Use Proceedings, pp. 459-463. (Olomouc: Palacky University).